MMA picks thread
 

I'm going to start doing these the way picks threads are done for the other sports, track results, etc. Since MMA events are less frequent than say, baseball, I want to add the feature of being able to risk 1, 2, or 3 units to reflect strength of confidence.

INAUGURAL PICK:

BJ Penn over Kenny Florian, -230 on BETUS, risking 3 units.

I actually got this one last week at -210, so the line's moving. I think that's with good reason. The question with Penn is always whether he's interested and whether he's been focused in training. It looks that way, him having moved camp to California to get away from distractions and appearing to be in good shape. For once, his opponent will be the smaller, weaker man and he should be able to win this fight wherever it goes. At least, I hope so because 3 units would start me off in a big hole.

+

Johnny Hendricks win by 3 round decision, +424 at 5dimes, risking 1 unit.

Hendricks is going off around +105, yet if he wins I see him as overwhelmingly likely to win by decision, using his superior wrestling to control Sadollah. Worth a flier.

1-1, +.3 units

Terrible stoppage in the Hendricks fight, but if he was already pummeling him 30 seconds in, I guess he was going to win in less than 3 rounds anyway.

Mizugaki over Curran, -190 at Beted, risk 1 unit

2-1, +.83 units

Gegard Mousasi over Renato Sobral, -200 at MB, risk 1 unit

This fight was originally scheduled for the Aug 1 Affliction card and Mousasi was cheaper! Unfortunately, that was canceled and when the fight was added to the Strikeforce card for Saturday night, Mousasi's line moved. I'll still chase this play, but just for one unit.

3-1, +1.33 units

a steamrolling by Mousasi

Going with the chalk:

Mike Russow -270 at BetEd
Brandon Vera -200 at 5d among others
Keith Jardine -139 at SportsInteraction
Nate Marquardt -170 at BetEd

all risk 1 unit

Yesterday: 3-1, +.74 units
Overall: 6-2, +2.07 units

UFN 19 pick
 

It looks like the more standard way to do the picks thread is like we're doing NFL - to win for faves and risk for underdogs. With apologies, I am converting this thread to that format.

Pick for tonight:

Nate Diaz -230 at BetUS 2 units