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Old 11-05-2008, 09:20 AM
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Post Systematic Error in the Presidential Polls?

Intrade has just launched new Polling Error Markets to shed light on the possibility that the final polling averages will significantly misrepresent the final state of the race. Could we see a big upset? The new markets are located in Politics -- US Election Polling. Intrade's Polling Error Markets will compare the spread between the final Real Clear Politics polling averages for Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain to the final true spread in the popular vote as published by the Federal Election Commission. These new markets will provide unique information on the likelihood that a candidate will significantly over or underperform the final poll averages. Factors such as turnout, late-breaking or late-shifting voters, polling selection bias, race, alleged voter fraud on both sides, or systematic errors in the polling industry could contribute to such a failure.

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