College teams to bet against

[Todd73NJ]

Why didn’t you bet against San Jose State every game last year?

The Spartans went 2-10 against the spread.

In 2008, how did you not see that Tyrone Willingham was poised to lead Washington to a 1-11 ATS mark?

Every year, there are a handful of these ATS dregs that never come close to meeting the public’s or oddsmakers’ expectations. Here are five candidates to bet against this year.

Tennessee Volunteers



Things are bad in Rocky Top. We’re talking Mississippi State bad. But, because of the Volunteers’ huge fan base and the SEC’s inflated reputation, oddsmakers will be hard-pressed to adjust the lines to match the condition of this storied program.

The Vols return an SEC-low nine starters, must replace their entire offensive line and have a question mark at quarterback.

Oh, and then there was this week’s bar brawl involving an estimated seven to 10 players and resulting in multiple arrests. Projected starting safety Darren Myles was booted from the team, and starting defensive tackle Marlon Walls and linebacker Greg King have been suspended indefinitely. The Vols were already extremely thin in the middle of their defense. They’re in bad shape now.

A brutal start to the SEC schedule could have Vols 0-5 in conference play heading into November. That will certainly have Rocky Top singing the blues. Welcome to Knoxville, coach Derek Dooley.

East Carolina Pirates



Why was this the year Skip Holtz decided to jet? He’s been a popular candidate for openings for the last three years. But why bolt this year?
Maybe he looked at the Pirate roster.

Only eight starters return from last year’s team, and, according to Phil Steele, ECU lost more lettermen (30) than any other FBS team.

In a way, the massive turnover might help new coach Ruffin McNeill Jr., who is installing Texas Tech’s “Air Raid” offense and a new defensive scheme.

In such a pass-happy offense, the quarterback is an obvious concern, especially knowing that a walk-on appears to have won the job. Sophomore Brad Wornick emerged as the top candidate after an impressive performance in the spring game (226 yards and two touchdowns).

But that’s more on an indictment on the Pirates’ defense, a unit that returns just two starters.

The two-time defending CUSA champions, the Pirates were a great bet under Holtz, going 38-25-1 ATS. That will change this season.

Temple Owls



With 16 returning starters from last year’s bowl team, the Owls are the favorites in the MAC. The Sporting News ranked Temple ahead of Oklahoma State and Michigan in its preseason 100. Under coach Al Golden, the Owls are 26-19-2 ATS, including 15-8-1 the past two seasons.

Everyone loves the Owls. Perfect fade material.

If you were lucky enough to watch the Eagle Bank Bowl, you saw Temple jump out against UCLA, only to wear down in the second half. The Bruins outscored the smaller Owls 20-0 in the second half for a 30-21 win.

No question, Golden has improved this program. But it’s really easy to get caught up in the feel-good story and forget the caliber of athletes Temple is able to attract.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks



29-60 – That’s Todd Berry’s career record as a head coach at Illinois State and Army. Yet, when the powers-that-be at ULM decided to replace longtime coach Charlie Weatherbie, Berry got the call.

After a dreadful four-year stint at Army (5-36), Berry spent the last seven years as a quarterbacks specialist at ULM, Miami and most recently UNLV. There wasn’t anything special about the quarterbacks at those programs under Berry.

Now, he inherits a team that returns just 10 starters off of last year’s 6-6 (4-7 ATS) team. The offensive line is a huge concern. Only 10 players dressed for that unit during the spring.

Tulane Green Wave



The Green Wave has posted five straight losing ATS seasons. A sixth is forthcoming.

Bob Toledo’s team lacks playmakers in the worst way. Only one returning player has scored more than one touchdown in their career. The absence of playmakers was evident in the spring practice, when the defense dominated. Considering only four starters return on defense, that’s not a good sign.

So Tulane has major question marks on offense and defense. Don’t forget about special teams, where a pair of redshirt freshman is listed as starters at kicker and punter.