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Old 02-21-2009, 12:45 AM
Jizay Jizay is offline
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Default Ufc 95

Some quick picks/analysis. Still haven't steered you wrong (yet). Take note - this event will be shown on Spike in the evening, but will actually being around 3p eastern -- it's taking place in Dublin.

My confidence pick for this UFC is Diego Sanchez over Joe Stevenson. Diego has two career losses - Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck, both of whom are at the top of the food chain in the welterweight division. Now he steps down to lightweight to fight a guy in Stevenson who is really just like him - mediocre standup, likes to take the fight to the ground. Only problem for Stevenson is that Diego is simply better on the ground, and even a little in the standup. Can't see how Stevenson wins. My only concern was that this is Diego's first cut down to lightweight, and he may have problems with dehydration. Saw his weigh-in pics, though, and he doesn't look like a holocaust victim or anything. Additionally, he always trains well and comes in excellent shape.

Nate Marquardt vs. Wilson Gouveia - I've backed Marquardt in this forum before and I like him to win again, but I'm really surprised at how strong a favorite he is being made - some places close to -300. Gouveia is a highly skilled opponent. Like Marquardt, he is well-rounded with good grappling and respectable striking. Moreover, Gouveia is still young and has a lot to gain by winning. My feeling is that with so many of the skill attributes being similar, the advantage goes to the stronger, more explosive athlete in Marquardt. But I wish the line was a little more favorable.

Demian Maia vs. Chael Sonnen - I lean toward Maia here, but there are some big question marks. No doubt the UFC views Maia as a rising star and is promoting him fairly hard. His jiu jitsu is great and if this goes to the ground, Sonnen is in danger of being submitted. My reluctance on this one is due to Sonnen's wrestling background: He can control where this fight goes moreso than Maia. If he wants to keep it standing, Maia will have a difficult time getting him down. Then, it will be an awkward standup fight between two bad strikers and there's no telling what happens. In that case, your wager will lie in the hands of 3 incompetent boxing judges, which is never a good thing.
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