Go Back   Sports Trading Chatter Forums > Trading and Gambling > General Betting

General Betting Have a great straight wager, or a chance at a free money arb? Talk about it here!

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-13-2008, 11:24 AM
Backslider's Avatar
Backslider Backslider is offline
Administrator
Legend
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
Posts: 20,484
Default Neutral Site games?

If we assume that playing a game at a neutral site has some effect on the outcome of the game (and/or some effect on your prediction of the outcome of the game)...

I have a question about when to consider a game a "neutral site" game, for purposes of handicapping. For example, in NCAA basketball today we have the following games:
1. UMass v. Kansas @ Kansas City, MO
2. St. Marys v San Diego St @ Anaheim, CA
3. Depaul v UCLA @ Anaheim, CA
4. Georgia Southern v. North Dakota St @ Des Moines, IA
5. San Diego v Oregon @ Portland, OR
6. Montana v. Washington St @ Seattle, WA

So.. #4 I think is the most obvious - it is the "standard" neutral site situation.

#1, #5, #6 are all similar situations - one team travelling to play on a court near the other team, but not that team's normal court. So, it seems like the fans will be heavily in favor of the "home" team, but the gym, court, rims, etc. are not their own. In all cases, I think they are bigger (NBA size) arenas, which could affect, for example, the o/u if the kids aren't used to shooting in that environment.

#2 you have two teams from CA. San Diego has less distance to travel, but the "crowd factor" is diminshed because..
#3 is at the same place. So you've got the crowd split in four. In this game, clearly Depaul has to travel a lot further, but again the UCLA home team factor is somewhat diluted by San Diego/St. Mary's fans.

Anyway.. which of these games should be considered neutral site? I am leaning towards just calling all of them neutral site, for the purposes of handicapping the game. Mainly because of my theory that the unfamiliar gym, court, rims, acoustics, backgrounds, etc. can affect the scoring rate (which will also affect that odds of covering).

Also, OJ Mayo sucks.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:00 PM.

Race at Intertops




Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.6
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.